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50c/$1 Pocket Jacks facing overcard on the flop.

The villain in this hand  is playing with a  VPIP of 15 and a PFR or 13 his aggression factor is 2 and these stats have been recorded over 300 hands. He attempts to steal the blinds 28%  of the time and to this point has never been to fold to a 3bet. He folds to flop continuation bets 50% of the time.

Seat 10 is the button
Hero is the small blind
Lamujerbonita is big blind

Seat 1: Hero ( $112.70 USD )
Seat 5: LAMUJERBONITA ( $108.15 USD )
Seat 6: PREFLOPPY ( $52.77 USD )
Seat 8: ValueTowningYou ( $100.40 USD )
Seat 10: vladmaffia ( $89.17 USD )

Hero posts small blind $0.50
LAMUJERBONITA posts big blind $1.00

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ J J ]

PREFLOPPY calls $1.00, ValueTowningYou raises $4.50, vladmaffia folds,
Hero raises $13.00, LAMUJERBONITA folds, PREFLOPPY folds, ValueTowningYou calls $9.00 USD

** Dealing Flop ** [ Q, 7, T ]
Hero bets $18.50 USD, ValueTowningYou calls $18.50

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4 ]
Hero checks, ValueTowningYou checks

** Dealing River ** [ 5 ]
Hero ?

On the river it is diffiuclt to know what the Hero should do. Is there space for a value bet? Should hero be looking to check fold after villain has called a 3 bet preflop and called a continuation bet?

Well we know that villain does not like folding to 3bets preflop so when he calls we can be putting him on a reasonably wide range even though his VPIP and PFR suggest he is tight player. Preflop 88+ AQ+ and KQs seems a reasonable range of hands for villain to be holding.

When villain decides to call hero’s flop continuation bet it would suggest that he has caught some of the flop. Maybe in the form of top pair or AK which has a gutshot and two over cards. Hero is planning to check/fold to a turn bet but once villain decides to check behind the turn it leaves hero with a difficult river decision.

Hero can either check or bet.

If hero checks then this will induce some bluffs from villain when he has over card type hands or mid pocket pairs which floated the flop. Obviously villain will value bet when he has a queen or better. So if we do plan to check it must be with the intention of folding if villain bets as we will just be guessing as to whether our hand is good or not.

The other option for hero would be to make a blocker bet. A bet of about 1/3rd of the size of the pot will force a showdown a lot of the time and villain would need a hand stronger than a queen to raise this bet. This bet can also get value from any hands that hero beats.

I would certainly prefer a blocker bet but both options are fine.